Emily's 1 hour before the Oscars predictions, nay, opinions

OK, I realize I'm a little late here, but since I saw SOOO many movies this year, I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring here on some Oscar thoughts. Not predictions, because, I'm no expert, but just who I'd WANT to win. We'll break it down, elimination style.

(Just the major categories, thanks Jessica, for the quick copy and paste...)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona 
Viola Davis - Doubt 
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Well, I'm gonna disagree with some ... people, and say this is sort of a weak category for me. None of these chicks particularly blew me away. Didn't see Penelope "One Person" Cruz in VCB, because I just had no desire to. It's not that I don't like her, it's just nothing about the movie called to me. So she's out. I didn't think Amy Adams was amazing in Doubt, she was capable. Marisa Tomei was also capable, but I don't feel like it was really stretching her all that much. Viola Davis was amazing in her scene, but it was ONE SCENE. It was like Raphael Palmiero winning the Golden Glove in 1999 with only playing 28 games on first base. So yeah, that's right, I'm going with Henson. I thought she was really, really good in BB and I look forward to seeing more from her in the future, especially if it has nothing to do with Tyler Perry.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight 
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

This is just the opposite of Best Actress to me. This is no doubt the strongest category and YAY! I've seen them all. Sorry RDJ, you just stick out here. You know it, I know it, you ain't winning. I'll be looking for you next year for the Soloist though. Brolin is out next for me -- was very, very good in Milk as a stumbling conservative antagonist to Sean Penn's flamboyant liberal character, but I think he was probably the third best actor in that movie (Or maybe I'm just blinded by James Franco's ... face.) Michael Shannon was AMAZING in Revolutionary Road and I remember thinking walking out of the theater that he should get nominated. Any other year he might be the new face to grab the big award. For me, it comes down to Philip Seymour Hoffman, or PSH as I like to call him (the sound, not the initials) and Heath Ledger. We all know it's Ledger's year but PSH gave me chills in Doubt. The final scene blow-by-blow scene between him and Streep is a movie classic -- I'm sure it will be included in montages for years to come. But Ledger gave me chills the whole movie. From the first scene, I was captivated. He took a character that has been around for decades, and turned it into something totally amazing and different. I'm so sad he won't be around to accept this award.

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt 
Kate Winslet - The Reader 

So it's sort of unfair for me to weigh in on this category. I saw so many movies this year, but missed Changeling, Rachel Getting Married, and Frozen River. But since none of them are the front-runners, I'll still weigh in. Doubt was not Meryl Streep's best performance, but her 100th best performance is still better than 99.9% of everything else out there. And as I detailed above, her final scene with PSH in Doubt was nutty good. Which brings us to Kate... oh the opinions on the Reader. Some hated it, some loved it, all thought Kate was good but many thought she was better in Revolutionary Road. Hmmm. Lot to chew on there. I also saw a montage of Kate from the movie that consisted (not on purpose) entirely of scenes where she was furrowing her brow. It made me pause, for a moment, but this movie was so good and Kate was the centerpiece. It was a stretch for her. It was a captivating performance. It's her year. Give it to the girl!

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk 
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler 

Didn't see the Visitor, but I'm sure Jenkins was solid, as always. Brad Pitt has been better in other things, but I do think he was perfect for the role and committed to it. Frank Langella, really, showed me Nixon. I'm 25, and haven't spent a lot of time watching black and white newsreel of our disgraced 37th president. His depiction will always be in my mind. Here's where it gets hard: Mickey Rourke vs. Sean Penn. Both perfect for the role, unimaginable to think of anyone else there. Iconic performances. I'd love to see Rourke's acceptance speech because he's just been shooting off at the mouth at every turn. But Penn was just slightly better in a slightly better movie. He deserves to win, but I wouldn't be mad to see Rourke take it home.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire 

Oof. This is hard. I can see why each of these movies is here. Eliminating Benjamin Button first -- can't help but thinking, from the actors to the director -- every one has had a better movie. I have to rank Slumdog Millionaire next and that KILLS me because I really loved that movie! It was just enjoyable. Milk goes next, but should be a standard that all bio pics should be judged against. Comes down to The Reader vs. Frost/Nixon for me. Not going to get too much into the Reader again, but will just say it shocked me, hurt me, thrilled me, saddened me and touched me all at once. Just. Great. But Frost/Nixon was the movie of the year for me. A play-turned-movie with all the actual stage actors actually in the film, directed by the always-solid Ron Howard (I've been watching Apollo 13 the past few days, what a great film!) I don't think F/N will win, and that's fine. But I think it's required viewing for everyone who's always wondered about the delicate balance between the media and the secretive public figure. It's really a chess match every time. Best journo movie since All the President's Men.

Some snubs, just for posterity:

BEST MOVIE: Dark Knight. Clearly. I'm not even exactly sure why this didn't get nominated. Can someone explain that to me? Critics loved it, cinematography was great, Ledger was amazing, etc, etc. I dunno. 

BEST ACTORS: All the actors from Slumdog Millionaire. Can those kids, as well as the adult actors, get some credit? How can you nominate the movie, the director, but none of the actors? (Quick aside: Frida Pinto is blow-me-away-gorgeous. I can't wait to see more from her). The other big snub for me was Leo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road. As I said in my review of that movie, he is underrated. He was heartbreaking in RR.

By the time you all read this, the Oscars will probably be over, but I'd love to hear your thoughts!